So as you all know now my offer is in and winding its way around a rather long and tedious course which should result in the pronouncement of some for of decision in some measure of time, I suggest that more likely a question will return because decisions do not seem to be easy to come by….
So now I wait, impatiently, chewing nails and stressing as to the machinations that are invisible to me after all I am but one property of many to all of the people involved in the decisions. Of course I shall remain at my maximum paranoia as I have so far and so remain convinced that at the last-minute I will hear that somebody else has secured massive backing and has blown my bid out of the water or that somebody has been negotiating at the golf course directly with the vendor. I am almost primed to receive the telephone call from the agent that tells me how sorry he is but he ‘wasn’t aware’ and ‘these things happen’.
Now what really helps the situation of course is the ongoing, unstoppable and not far short of unbelievable rumour mill. I have been told of at least three distinct and individual people that have put offers in and have even been told of offers that have gone in well above the asking price! I must now remind myself that when I was frantic to get a viewing and beginning to believe the rumours of other offers and back door deals my agent advised against listening to the rumours, ok we had some false turns and it was difficult but it’s not an easy situation and the result was as promised, the first person to view was indeed me.
It’s not only in recent times that I have been outbid or beaten on financials, it has happened on several business over the years and the frustration is different to that which you see in a house purchase. With a house the price that you offer is clearly a result of your desire for that property and the affordability of that mortgage but with a pub you have to shelve the desirability (we all love pubs) and look at the affordability from a business perspective.
Now when you have spent weeks labouring over business plans and costings and weeks securing funding followed by yet more weeks stress testing all of the financials then you know that your numbers are correct simple as that the maths is correct. So when somebody appears out of the woodwork with a higher estimation of the potential for the business you know, as a matter of fact, that they are incorrect. If their numbers are incorrect then they will fail, that is a given, but on their way to failure they will degrade both the goodwill and the asset in so doing they will present a bigger hurdle on their exit.
Normally when people exit on failure they leave uncovered costs behind them and these costs end up with somebody and be that a receiver or a landlord they are now looking to extract more from a business that is worth less and so the cycle continues. I have looked at several pubs over the years and less often produced business plans for some and I can honestly say that where I have produced a business plan and somebody has offered more money they have all failed 100% of them; my record is not as good where I have only looked in passing but its something like 95% still.
In the current instance I have done all that I can do to document a sensible and rational long-term approach to a business that has been in severe decline for many years and almost like sealed bids I must resign myself to the fact that I do know my maths and I have tabled a strong offer that has a good chance of maintaining the business, if only this was one of the vendors considerations…